Bitcoin Forecasts Are Still Bollocks

In May 2018, I posted an article critical of Cryptocurrency forecasters, pointing out that most people voicing an optimistic view of future price moves had a conflict of interest. After nearly a year of hitting new lows each week, Bitcoin, and Cryptocurrencies at large, have rallied for a week running. As has been a trend in this industry, the optimists are out in force again.

However, Bitcoin forecasts are still Bollocks. As far as technology and use cases are concerned, the Blockchain sector has gone way beyond Bitcoin, but for some reason, this failed “digital currency” is still, rather absurdly, seen as the bellwether of the sector. The Bitcoin Foundation is yet to do anything substantial to take the token close to being what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned it to be. Transaction times are still high and network fees are volatile. In fact, other tokens such as Ether, EOS, and Steem now have better fundamentals. Data from www.stateofthedapps.com suggests that EOS has surpassed Ether as a decentralized platform, with EOS dapps having more users than those deployed on Ethereum. Even steem, a cryptocurrency that incentivizes social media addiction seems to be more actively used than Ethereum. Obviously, the popularity of Bitcoin and Ether still stem from all the publicity they gained during the dazzling price rise in late 2017.

Not that there haven’t been any moves on fundamentals. Upbit, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange has obtained approvals to offer trading services in South Korea and Singapore, and will soon have the infrastructure for traders to capitalize their trading accounts from real-world banks. Similar approvals in Europe are likely in early 2019. In the United states, the Securities and Exchange Commission is warming to the idea of cryptocurrencies, with Commissioner Hester Pierce being quite vocal of her views supporting the asset class. Though these will provide the necessary tailwinds for Cryptocurrencies as speculative assets, they completely exclude the use cases that crypto-entrepreneurs are working on. The marketplace for speculation is expanding rapidly, with a new decentralised exchange opening every week, but liquidity is thin as in most jurisdictions, you can’t fund your trading account from a bank.

So the next time someone buttonholes you to rave about how the crypto market has “bottomed” and is now heading “to the moon”, smile thoughtfully and nod, perhaps make acknowledging grunts to be polite knowing full well that it’s all a load of bollocks.

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Bitcoin: Tread Carefully

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Everybody wants Bitcoin Bragging Rights today. It appears that with the Currency passing USD 10,000 and the media being inundated with tales of people who have made fortunes because they bought bitcoins a few years ago, imaginations have been fired up. Be warned – much of the good news today is being put out by people who have a conflict of interest because they themselves own Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Make no mistake – the risks are very high. Bitcoin in itself suffers from a number of structural problems that do not make it an ideal asset. Though it is the cardinal cryptocurrency today and forms the basis of most trading in the asset class, these problems will hamper the market in the days to come.

First – Settlement times. It’s easy to be optimistic in light of the recent news of CBOE and CME offering Bitcoin Futures – but settlement times running into minutes or hours based on network traffic make this a cumbersome asset for the pricing algorithms that banks and hedge funds use. Unless the Bitcoin Foundation pushes through a MAJOR update to fix this, the currency is unlikely to gain much traction in the highly fluid and algo-driven futures market.

Second – Market cap. Even though much is being said about Bitcoin’s market cap exceeding well-known listed companies (USD 207 billion as of writing), it is still minuscule by standards of a ‘global’ currency. A leveraged options trader with a USD 1 billion book can easily trigger a major swing one way or the other. If banks and hedge funds take up the CBOE/CME gauntlet and allocate risk to this asset class, crypto traders will have to redefine ‘whale’.

So what is one to do?

Forget easy money. Do not tank your retirement fund and invest in bitcoin. If you do not have the stomach to see your portfolio down by 20 per cent when you return from a toilet break, Bitcoin – as it is today is NOT for you.

Once you get through the hype, there are other opportunities in the crypto space that will yield profits over the medium and long term. Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) are issues of cryptocurrencies by businesses looking to raise funding from the market. Most of these today occur via Ether, and yield tokens compatible with the ERC20 standard. This makes these tokens easier to trade via smart contracts-based exchanges such as EtherDelta and HitBTC.

Another way to profit from the asset class as a whole, is to invest in Crypto-funds. The past few months have seen the launch of a variety of such funds that are both actively managed (TaaS and Smart IFT) and passively managed (Crypto20). For those looking for long-term exposure to the asset class, this is a great way to get some risk on.

For everybody out there who is mesmerised by the price graphs on TV and is looking to dive in, I would remind you of the old Wall Street adage:

“Bulls make money, Bears make money, Hogs get slaughtered.”

Disclosure: I have exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, Smart IFT and Crypto20.

ICOs: Venture Capital for Mere Mortals

womanmoney-800pxAn Initial Coin Offering (“ICO”) is a method by which entrepreneurs raise money via cryptocurrencies. In the typical ICO, a company floats a proprietary digital token on a network such as Ethereum and accepts Bitcoin, Ether, or another cryptocurrency in exchange. These new tokens represent either shareholding or participatory privileges in the fledgling business. Ethereum has been a game changer for such enterprises, having served as a platform for most issuances.

These ICOs represent the beginning of a fundamental shift in how high-technology businesses are funded. In the past four decades, angel investors and venture capitalists got behind great ideas and funded them. Private equity funds then took up the gauntlet in second stage funding and ran to the IPOs. By the time these companies listed on stock exchanges and shares made their way into the hands of individual investors, the venture capitalists and the private equity funds had locked in massive returns on capital. Few individual investors could hope to match the kind of profits that early investors generated. Well, one could certainly invest in a Private Equity fund, but in most regulatory jurisdictions, you would need about a million dollars to join.

The game is changing. Today, lay investors with a rudimentary understanding of how Cryptocurrencies work have the opportunity to make early-stage investments with as little as USD 100. The ICO revolution puts early-stage investing and its profit opportunities within the reach of ordinary investors. For instance USD 1,000 invested at Ethereum’s ICO in 2015 would today be worth USD 230,000!

There are risks though. Venture capitalists are high risk takers, and are comfortable with the possibility that their entire investment in a particular company may be lost. Even Private Equity funds, though somewhat more conservative, play similar odds. For an individual investor with a focus on capital preservation, this may be a poor thesis on which to build one’s retirement portfolio, but this does offer a credible and low-cost opportunity to add some high-reward risk to a conservative portfolio.

The fraud risks are immense. Information on internet directories suggests that the time of writing, there are over 100 companies at various stages of the ICO process. Naturally, performing adequate due diligence on these is a huge challenge. The only resources that investors have are the LinkedIn profiles of the principals of these companies and a webpage that contains information about the supposed product. As the frenzy kicks up, it is entirely possible that fraudsters conduct an ICO and divert the proceeds. The decentralized nature of Blockchain enterprises will make such fraud impossible to investigate or prosecute with the current state of Law, as investigative agencies lack jurisdiction across international borders.

Regulatory risks abound too. Though multiple governments are warming to cryptocurrencies, these are largely considered to be a fad among technology enthusiasts. As interfaces with the traditional financial systems increase and cryptocurrencies become more influential in moving markets, the possibility of stronger regulation increases, and “investments” in these tokens may be challenging to liquidate.

The biggest risk though, is that most Blockchain startups are based on arcane concepts that are beyond the understanding of the average person. While these systems and platforms represent engineering genius, as a utility, they are irrelevant to 90 per cent of the world’s population. Furthermore, many of these projects are conceptualized and executed by young and passionate entrepreneurs. While their technical skills and intentions are beyond doubt, it remains to be seen if their business skills are up to the mark in riding the wave of disruption that they are about to unleash. Browsing through these ICO Prospectuses (or white papers as they’re called), it’s obvious that most of them are aimed at solving fundamental problems related to service delivery, financial inclusion, and even healthcare – however, whether these platforms will actually make the change that they envision is up for debate.

Cryptocurrencies, as an asset class, have delivered outstanding returns in what seems to be blowing into a bubble. Thankfully, newer digital assets such as Ether, Gnosis and Aeternity tokens have a functional aspect that will add fundamental value to them as time passes. For instance, Bitcoin has notional value like paper money, and there is a possibility that the currency will collapse once mining it becomes unprofitable. Conversely, Ether is the sole mode of payment of transaction fees for a growing number of applications on Ethereum. As these apps increase in number and grow in user base, the fundamental value of Ether will increase.

In conclusion, if the idea of owning a piece of a high-potential technology business is appealing to you, looking up ICOs may be worth your time.

Start your Cryptocurrency journey by buying Bitcoin via Unocoin

Cryptocurrency Classism is Here

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Cryptocurrency is becoming classist.

This is particularly dismaying, because if anything, cryptocurrency networks have the potential to drive financial inclusion on an unprecedented scale. Ethereum-based ICOs can bring early-stage investing to ordinary individuals, giving them the opportunity to add some risk to their portfolios at a reasonable price. However, cabals of insiders are forming.

In June 2017, cofound.it, billed as a Blockchain venture capital fund, had its ICO. This ICO was purchased entirely by a group of insiders who had the cofound.it “Priority Pass”. To get on this priority list, you need to have a minimum of 5000 CFI tokens in your wallet. This token is currently priced at USD 0.25, meaning that you need a deposit of about USD 1,250 with cofound.it to participate. Cofound.it’s first partner ICO – Santiment – is allotting a portion of its tokens exclusively to CFI Priority Pass holders. Looking at Santiment’s white paper, this is particularly worrying, as Santiment aims to be the leading provider of Cryptocurrency market information. If this “vision” materializes, the Cryptocurrency market will mimic the uneven playing field that the global capital markets have become. It is highly possible that these Santiment “insiders” will have preferential access to both information and platforms and will possibly drive the agenda of what Santiment pushes to the public.

So where are we headed with this? This trend is not going to slow. These cabals of insiders will continue to grow stronger, and will extend their influence in the cryptocurrency sphere. Services like Santiment will have the power to make or break any upcoming ICO. In addition, as algorithmic trading systems become increasingly active on cryptocurrency markets, data cues will drive broad-based market movements. In the worst-case scenario, the entire cryptocurrency industry will become a casino, where optimistic lay investors will hope to make a fortune, while a bunch of insiders will laugh all the way to the bank. In the end, we will be left with the cesspool of collusion, corruption, and deceit that today’s capital markets have become.